It is quite apparent that the telecommunications regulator of the United Kingdom, Ofcom had long cherished plans to auction off two radio spectrum chunks – one of around 2.6GHz that was previusly earmarked for 3G mobile broadband services, and and the other of around 800MHz. The fixed-line and mobile broadband internet market experts in the United Kingdom has started thinking about the viability of the spectrum re-using plans of the current government, in the light of a more obtruding fact that the regulator itself getting abolished in the near future.

Therefore, now it is almost confirmed that the efforts to inject fresh services on the UK radio spectrum’s little-used areas would hit an iceberg that would start melting by only by next year. Ironically, by this time a changed government might just have the regulator itself abolished, as the Tories have already pledged to do this once they assume the power.

Meanwhile, those supporters of the spectrum auction that persistently seek a loop hole to carry on with the auction process, any such moves are shelved currently due to a prevailing political indecision, which was revealed by the experts that spoke at a Westminster eForum’s public discussion.

It is quite interesting to see that even the person who was bestowed upon the onus of carrying out the auctions smoothly and at the earliest by the Labour government, Kip Meek saying that ‘a policy making orphan’ was what the spectrum issue had turned out to be. It was not just Meek who had turned a pessimist regarding the issue, but also many others including Rod Kirwan, Denton Wilde Sapte’s telecoms lawyer that said he did not think the auction would happen in 2010.

Broadband Sector

While we discuss the economical recession that first showed its ugly face in the final quarter of the year 2008, we simply cannot neglect the part played by the broadband service of internet sector of the country in either freeing the nation from the mires or worsening the situation. Whatsoever, one definitely cannot say that the UK broadband sector of the United Kingdom, in any way ended up in exacerbating the dire economic condition prevailing in the country. On the other hand, as the increasing numbers of freshly conceived technologies pertinent to the sector were making their way to the fore, the development coincided with the emergence of more employment opportunities.

Alongside, the tremendous competition that prevailed in the broadband market of the UK had, in its turn, caused the broadband providers to come up with more value for money home and business broadband packages that have helped the businesses in the country considerably. Meanwhile, the households benefited from this outcome by more engaging in the latest job trend of ‘work from home’. It cannot be deprecated if someone says that the ‘work from home’ concept was the offspring of the unholy partnership between the economic downturn and the swine flu pandemic. The only disappointment here – if it can be called that – is the reality that any kind of Universal Broadband rollout would only be realized in the country by 2017.

Nonetheless, the main hope that has been packed in the broadband internet parcel is the recently started next generation fibre optic broadband internet service roll out across the country. It is anticipated that the fresh rollout would pack broadband internet access speeds of up to 100Mbps, which is perfect for the latest bandwidth hungry applications such as video on demand and TV on demand (Online TV).

Mobile Broadband

It is quite apparent that the mobile broadband service was one of the most profound services put forward by this decade. As a matter of fact, the introduction of this technology nicety had given a pleasant surprise for the broadband internet consumers in the country. This service that at present, actively compliments the mobile phone service has also settled as an economic communications option. Today, many more mobile broadband providers have come to the frontline by launching their own mobile broadband dongles, as previously this was an exclusive playground for the five prominent mobile operators in the United Kingdom; O2, Vodafone, 3UK, T-Mobile and Orange. Something that has potentially complimented this technology is the development of a mobile WiFi (MiFi) wireless mobile broadband service.

Moreover, if the Labour government of the United Kingdom comes out successfully resolving the issue of the radio spectrum re-allotment, it would in its turn result in the country being provided remarkable coverage, particularly in the rural areas of the UK where the fixed-line broadband suppliers were struggling to provide broadband connections. This would end up in saving the country from a devastating Digital Divide. Such a development would be of considerable significance, when it is complimented by the rollout of the latest Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology-based services that delivered access speeds of up to 40Mbps, as against the fastest speed of 14Mbps (headline speed) offered by the ISPs of the present.

Satellite Broadband

The other option is the satellite broadband service that could be a viable one, to boost the communications scenario of the country in the next decade. Here, a good part depends on the successes of Avanti Communications UK as it has announced its raising enough cash to fund the procurement, launch and functioning of Hylas 2, its future broadband satellite. It is also worth mentioning here that all these hasve taken place before the launch of Avanti’s first satellite; Hylas 1, which is due for launch in quarter 2010. Meanwhile, the second more powerful satellite of the operator that comes with a capacity of 8280MHz as against the 3000 MHz capacity of its predecessor would be launched in the first hemi of the year 2012. It is also interesting that the satellite is being procured from the US-based Orbital Sciences Corporation and the launch service, from France’s Arianespace.

The significance of the upcoming satellite boom in the United Kingdom is that it is capable to fill the existing demand in the country for around hundred million satellite broadband internet connections. Another refreshing news in the sphere is that Inmarsat, the mobile satellite operator based in the United Kingdom is all set to start providing Russia with mobile satellite services in 2010. Inmarsat plans to tie up with the Russian Airlines service Aeroflot to provide airlines broadband service on Aeroflot aircraft during flights.

Other Important Predictions

The broadband enabled television is of course one of the prime things expected by the television savvy broadband internet consumers in the country. This has been deemed for a long time as a potential alternative for or the future itself of the television. The concept has even been given a name – The Project Canvas. This is alll about an IPTV venture supported by BT, ITV, BBC, Five, Channel 4 and TalkTalk. This service is also dubbed as Freeview II, where an internet connection comes packed with the Freeview set top box. This service has been boasted as one that enables the customers to enjoy the website of BBC and its iPlayer-like offerings. If hearsay can be believed, the partners are also signing contracts to rope in outsider content such as LoveFilm as well to the service.

Another writing on the wall, and so intriguing is the fact that real time social communication websites such as Twitter and Facebook are here to stay. This is more than evident from the knowledge that Twitter was beginning to charge business firms for using it and Bing and Google were planning to accommodate tweets in their search results.

Finally, another vital development that can be witnessed as well as experienced by the broadband using public of the United Kingdom is the emergence of a comprehensive and compact wireless broadband network across the nation, with stress laid on community based WiFi hotspots that can, to a great extent, serve in the eradication of broadband notspots across the country.

As it is well just a matter of time before the two mobile broadband networks announced the tie up, experts have already started to ponder deeply over the viability of the 900MHz mobile spectrum reallocation plans put forth by the business secretary of the UK, Lord Mandelson, with a view to resolve the long running dispute.

The resolution package forwarded by Mandelson had been much hyped by the media around as a viable one that could put an end to the dispute, and pave way for the much awaited universal broadband rollout across the country by potentially bridging the coverage gaps left over by the fixed-line broadband providers of the country.

As a matter of fact, Mandelson had given T-Mobile, the major protestant broadband provider of the lot, a week’s time to decide up on the resolution package proposed by him. It was quiet apparent from the moves that the business secretary was determined to crackdown on the dissident ISPs. Perhaps using his lethal weapon that is the upcoming analogue TV spectrum release in 2012.

The Mandelson resolution package was designed based on a theory that involved five mobile networks. Now, as the proposed T-Mobile-Orange tie up would result in the reducing the entities to four; and more importantly, the new entity being large enough to out class the two big traditional mobile operators – O2 and Vodafone, it is likely that the government could find itself in a crunch situation. Here the government would not only have to make necessary ammendmends to the theory, but also have to do it fastly, for time is obviously not on its side.

Many experts of broadband UK maintain the view that even though Mandelson would come up with an ammended version in quick time, he may not be able to successfully propitiate the new mobile broadband Goliath, who is expected to come with tremendous power provided to it by the pooling of the money of two competent mobile broadband providers.

Incidentally, the merger as it happens, would help the fresh entity enjoy a market share of 40 per cent and a customer-base of 30 million in the United Kingdom. The merger would also put the companies in a position to enjoy a considerably robust bargaining with the communications authorities, although it would very much be the centre of attraction for the regulators of competition in the coming years.

However, the major contenders are also having their share of problems in going all out to seize the opportunity. This is evident from their making relatively low conditional bids such as of GBP 3.5 billion that are believed to be much below the price sought by Obermann. Experts think that that if Obermann sells T-Mobile UK for 3.5 billion, he would probably require to make one more write-down on the mobile division that has been already subjected to a write-down of 1.6 billion earlier in 2009. This fact also makes the experts think that Obermann’s not accepting any of the approaches can also be a possibility in the circumstances.

Moreover, the German owner of T-Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, is also much inclined towards a merger with France Telekom owned Orange, mainly for the reason that the cash bids by the big companies were lower than the expectations of the UK mobile broadband provider. Besides, the two merging companies could pool their networks conveniently, saving considerable money. However, striking such a deal would largely depend on the claim put forth by Orange. It is believed that Orange would demand a majority stake, for its being the larger mobile broadband network operator.

The problems faced by the dominant duo – Vodafone and O2 – start from the certainty that anyone that strikes a deal with T-Mobile is likely to be forced to shed some of the spectrum that was granted to the pair when they had started their broadband services in the 1980s. Another reason for the low bids is that about one fourth of T-Mobile’s customer base belonged to Virgin Mobile, the mobile division of Virgin Media, which uses the network of the former to run its mobile services. Lastly, but definitely not the least, any of the two dominant networks who emerges to acquire T-Mobile assets in the country would get elevated to above 40 percent of the UK market, and thereby falls target to a lot of scrutiny by the regulator.

Meanwhile, a merger between T-Mobile and Orange would definitely be of concern to the government, as the process would send it back to the drawing board to change its primary plans for providing every household in the UK with a reasonably fast broadband service. As a matter of fact, the government’s plan is based on a platform of five operators. A viable resolution to the 900MHz mobile broadband spectrum dispute is anticipated by many at present, more so after the personal intervention of the UK business secretary, Lord Mandelson. It is also understood that he has given T-Mobile, the main objector, a week’s deadline to reach a solution.

This can also be the general thinking of the public in the United Kingdom at this point of time when even a highly previleged man in terms of broadband access (at least) like the BT Chairman Sir Michael Rake is not able to get broadband in his home at Hambledon Valley in Hampshire. Perhaps BT can ease this out by placing the area under a prioritised connection group in their big-time fibre rollout that is engaged to cover 40 percent of the country.

Here, if something can be called pathetic, it would obviously be the case of millions who are languishing with incompetent broadband speeds or even no service at all, in the rural remotes of the country. Particularly, when BT has revealed its limitations in serving the extra 30 percent of the population with its aged ADSL lines. Read this along with the 2Mbps broadband for all by 2012 promise of the government, published in the Digital Britain report.

When the campaigners and critics started flaying the government for its lack of foresightedness following BT’s disclosure of the fact, it had promptly announced that mobile broadband was the viable alternative, it was looking forward to. Only to land in another muddy puddle as things were nothing less than war-ridden there.

Today, many people fear that the government, out of anxiety may adapt a top down policy of appeasing the intransigent networks in the first place and later attending to the woes of the general public. The placating package of the government may worsen the issue, as the operators once handed over the spectrum, might once again resort to their current operational mode of setting up services in the most profitable areas, leaving well behind their rural commitments.

A good number of analysts in the country disagrees with the appeasement package proposal citing that it would only lead to the networks splitting capacity to hold back speeds, as getting returns from sparcely populated areas where accessing speeds were quite critical, was unlikely for five or six competing networks. The alternative plan advocated by the critics was the nurturing of a single large capacity network.

An all in one network that would serve like a Railtrack for trains, was the precise concept of these people. Here from the huge capacity national network, according to them, operators bid to gain a geographic area. However, Cooper has downplayed the idea stating that this solution had not gained much traction, particularly for its lacking conduction to competition, which is agreed by all operators. According to Terry Norman, another broadband expert in the UK, ISPs such as O2, Vodafone, T-Mobile and 3 should have been resorting to a pragmatic approach to the issue by seeking the government’s permission to share spectrum in rural areas.